Federal Register - May 13, 2021
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Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 91 / Thursday, May 13, 2021 / Rules and Regulations EXHIBIT 1FINAL RULE WAGE TRANSITION FOR THE TWO APPLICATION GROUPS
Wage transition Year Two-step 2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
20262030
Four-step
Baseline
Baseline
90%
Final Wage Level
Final Wage Level
Final Wage Level
Baseline.
Baseline.
85%.
90%.
95%.
Final Wage Level.
Beginning January 1, 2026, the transitions are both complete and all workers are at the final wage level.
The shift in the transition schedule results in the annual transfer payments
presented in Exhibit 2, below. To see total transfer payments in the 2021 Final
Rule, refer to Exhibit 10 of the 2021
Final Rule.
EXHIBIT 2SHIFTED TRANSFER PAYMENTS OF THE 2021 FINAL RULE
2019$ millions <1
12 Years
23 Years
Cohort
Total New
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Continuing
New
Continuing
New
Continuing
Continuing 3+
$0
0
9
20
20
28
28
28
28
28
$0
0
0
5
11
11
15
15
15
15
$0
0
31
39
77
111
111
111
111
111
$0
0
0
69
168
178
244
244
244
244
$0
0
960
2,529
2,622
3,772
3,772
3,772
3,772
3,772
$0
0
0
876
5,065
5,251
7,553
7,553
7,553
7,553
$0
0
0
0
2,838
7,474
7,749
11,150
11,150
11,150
$0
0
1,000
3,538
10,801
16,824
19,472
22,872
22,872
22,872
10-year Total
188
90
700
1,391
24,972
41,403
51,510
120,253
The Department expects that the Final Rules delay in effective date will result in savings to employers and a reduction in wages to employees represented by the reduction of transfer payments wages from employers to employees.
The Department calculates the Final Rules reduced transfer payments by differencing the shifted transfer
payments in Exhibit 2 from the 2021
Final Rules transfer payments Exhibit 10 of the Final Rule. The Department estimates the total reduction of transfer payments over the 10-year period is $32.05 billion and $28.19 billion at discount rates of 3 and 7 percent, respectively. The Department estimates annualized reduced transfer payments
of $3.76 billion and $4.01 billion at discount rates of 3 and 7 percent, respectively. Exhibit 3, below, presents the total transfer payments of the 2021
Final Rule, the shifted transfer payments resulting from the Final Rule delay, and the resulting reduction of transfer payments by the Final Rule.2
EXHIBIT 3TOTAL TRANSFER PAYMENTS OF THE FINAL RULE
2019 millions 2021
Final Rule transfer payments
Year
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Shifted 2021
Final Rule transfer payments
Final Rule reduction of transfer payments
$416
2,368
7,026
13,542
18,964
21,924
22,872
22,872
22,872
22,872
$0
0
1,000
3,538
10,801
16,824
19,472
22,872
22,872
22,872
$416
2,368
6,026
10,005
8,163
5,100
3,400
0
0
0
10-Year Total Undiscounted
155,730
120,253
35,477
2 Delayed transfer payments under the proposed rule are approximately the Final Rule transfer payments shifted by two years. They are not exactly shifted because the transition period under the
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Final Rule resulted in each wage level of the transition occurring for half a year rather than a full year due to the Final Rule transition occurring on
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a July 1st to June 30th basis rather than a calendar year basis as under the proposed rule.
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