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Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 33 / Monday, February 22, 2021 / Proposed Rules 7. An evaluation by the state of sources of all four PM2.5 precursors for regulation, and implementation of controls on all such precursors, unless the state provides a demonstration establishing it is either not necessary to regulate a particular precursor in the nonattainment area at issue in order to attain by the attainment date, or that emissions of the precursor do not make a significant contribution to PM2.5 levels that exceed the standard;
8. Contingency measures meeting the requirements of CAA section 172c9
and 40 CFR 51.1014; and 9. Nonattainment new source review provisions meeting the requirements of CAA section 189b3 and 40 CFR
51.165.
In the Serious area nonattainment plan, states must also satisfy the requirements for Moderate area plans in CAA section 189a, to the extent the state has not already met those requirements in the Moderate area plan submitted for the area see CAA section 189b1, 40 CFR 51.1003b, and 81 FR
58010, 58075, August 24, 2016. In addition, the Serious area nonattainment plan must meet the general requirements applicable to all SIP submissions under section 110 of the CAA, including the requirement to provide necessary assurances that the implementing agencies have adequate personnel, funding, and authority under section 110a2E, and the requirements concerning enforcement provisions in section 110a2C.
EPA is proposing to approve parts of the Fairbanks Serious Plan as meeting the base year emission inventory requirements and certain optional PM2.5
precursor demonstration requirements.
EPA is also proposing to approve rule revisions and an associated air quality control plan chapter submitted by Alaska into the Federally-approved SIP
SIP strengthening. Therefore, the ensuing evaluation of the Fairbanks Serious Plan focuses on only the statutory and regulatory requirements applicable to these Serious area nonattainment plan provisions.
Additionally, we are not evaluating whether the Fairbanks Serious Plan or the December 15, 2020, submission meets the additional planning obligations of CAA section 189d or 40
CFR 51.1003c. We note that EPA
approved the nonattainment new source review element of the Fairbanks Serious Plan on August 29, 2019 84 FR 45419.
We will take action on the remaining elements of the Fairbanks Serious Plan and the December 15, 2020, submission at a later date.

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III. Review of the Fairbanks Serious Plan A. Base Year Emissions Inventory 1. Statutory and Regulatory Requirements CAA section 172c3 requires that states submit a comprehensive, accurate, current inventory of actual emissions from all sources of the relevant pollutant or pollutants in the nonattainment area as part of a nonattainment plan for such area. EPA
discussed the emissions inventory requirements that apply to PM2.5
nonattainment areas, including Serious area nonattainment plan requirements, in the PM2.5 SIP Requirements Rule. The EPA codified these requirements in 40
CFR 51.1008.7 EPA has also issued additional guidance concerning emissions inventories for PM2.5
nonattainment areas.8
The base year emissions inventory for a Serious PM2.5 nonattainment area must be one of the three years for which monitored data were used by EPA to reclassify the area to Serious, or another technically appropriate year justified by the state in its Serious area nonattainment plan SIP submission.9
The base year emissions inventory should provide a states best estimate of actual emissions from all sources, i.e., all emissions that contribute to the formation of a particular NAAQS
pollutant. The emissions must be either annual total emissions, average-season day emissions, or both, as appropriate for the relevant annual versus 24-hour PM2.5 NAAQS. In the Serious area plan SIP submission, the state must include a rationale for providing annual or seasonal emission inventories, and justification for the period used for any seasonal emissions calculations.10
For the PM2.5 NAAQS, the base year inventory must include direct PM2.5
emissions, separately reported filterable and condensable PM2.5 emissions,11 and emissions of all chemical precursors to the formation of secondary PM2.5:
nitrogen oxides NOX, sulfur dioxide 7 81 FR 58010, August 24, 2016, at pp. 58078
58079.
8 Emissions Inventory Guidance for Implementation of Ozone and Particulate Matter National Ambient Air Quality Standards NAAQS
and Regional Haze Regulations, EPA, May 2017
Emissions Inventory Guidance, available at:
https www.epa.gov/air-emissions-inventories/airemissions-inventory-guidance-implementationozone-and-particulate.
9 40 CFR 51.1008b1.
10 40 CFR 51.1008.
11 The Emissions Inventory Guidance identifies the types of sources for which EPA expects states to provide condensable PM emission inventories.
Emissions Inventory Guidance, section 4.2.1
Condensable PM Emissions, 6365.

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SO2, volatile organic compounds VOC, and ammonia NH3.12
A states SIP submission must include documentation explaining how it calculated emissions data for the inventory and be consistent with the data elements required by 40 CFR part 51, subpart A. In estimating mobile source emissions, a state should use the latest emissions models and planning assumptions available at the time the SIP is developed. States are also required to use EPAs Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors AP
42 road dust method for calculating re-entrained road dust emissions from paved roads. 13 14
2. Summary of States Submission The base year planning emissions inventory for direct PM2.5 and PM2.5
precursors NOX, SO2, VOC, and ammonia and the documentation for the inventory for the Fairbanks PM2.5
Nonattainment Area are located in Chapter III.D.7.6 Emissions Inventory Data and Appendix III.D.7.6 of the Fairbanks Serious Plan.
The State developed the inventory using data sources and emission calculation methodologies from the approved Fairbanks PM2.5 Moderate Plan as its starting point and then updated the emissions totals based on additional source and activity data collected since preparation of that inventory.
The State based the 2013 base year emissions inventory on historical source activity data in calendar year 2013 for all source sectors. For point sources, the State updated emissions data for the 2013 base year emissions inventory based on annual fuel use/process throughput by individual facility and emission unit.15 The State also included fuel-based ammonia emissions for point 12 40

CFR 51.1008.
released an update to AP42 in January 2011 that revised the equation for estimating paved road dust emissions based on an updated data regression that included new emission tests results.
76 FR 6328 February 4, 2011.
14 AP42 has been published since 1972 as the primary source of EPAs emission factor information. https www.epa.gov/airemissionsfactors-and-quantification/ap-42compilation-airemissions-factors. It contains emission factors and process information for more than 200 air pollution source categories. A source category is a specific industry sector or group of similar emitting sources. The emission factors have been developed and compiled from source test data, material balance studies, and engineering estimates.
15 For directly emitted PM , condensable and 2.5
filterable components are separately reported, see Appendix III.D.7.6, Table 7676. Alaska and EPA
have determined that the point source sector is the only Source Classification Code SCC category that must include condensable and filterable PM2.5
information in the Fairbanks PM2.5 Nonattainment Area.
13 EPA

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