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Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 8 / Wednesday, January 13, 2021 / Rules and Regulations
whether to make a SCF is the magnitude of GHG emissions from a given source category. It is readily apparent that EGUs emit a uniquely large amount of GHGs compared to all other categories of stationary sources. The EPA made this clear in the 2015 Rule, quoted above, and reiterated it in the 2020 Oil & Gas Rule: the unique CO2 emissions profile of fossil fuel-fired EGUs should be noted: the volume of emissions from EGUs dwarfs the amount of GHG
emissions from every other source category. 85 FR 57039, n.49.
Although GHG emissions from EGUs have fallen since the EPA promulgated the 2015 Rule, they still remain uniquely large among stationary source categories. The EPAs Inventory of U.S.
Greenhouse Gas Emissions 17 indicates that, as of 2018, the Electric Power sector directly emitted 1,778.5 MMT of GHGs.18 This amount was more than twice the amount of GHGs emitted by all other industrial sources combined and more than all other industrial, commercial, and residential stationary combustion sources combined.19 In addition, direct GHG emissions from EGUs account for approximately 27
percent of total U.S. GHG emissions and 43 percent of U.S. stationary source emissions. The direct GHG emissions from EGUs account for approximately 4
percent of total worldwide GHG
emissions and are greater than the emissions of all but four countries.20
These facts confirm that at current emission levels, EGUs have measurable impacts on both the U.S. contribution to GHG emissions and the worldwide total GHG emissions and continue to be uniquely large stationary source emitters of GHGs. It should be noted that if domestic EGUs no longer emitted any GHG emissions, there would be a measurable impact on worldwide GHG
emissions and between 2020 and 2100, there would be a reduction in the 17 See Table 39, Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 19902018, Report 430
R20002, April 13, 2020, https www.epa.gov/
ghgemissions/inventory-us-greenhouse-gasemissions-and-sinks-1990-2018.
18 The global warming potential GWP of a greenhouse gas is defined as the ratio of the accumulated radiative forcing within a specific time horizon relative to that of the reference gas CO2.
Total GHG emissions are the GWP-weighted emissions of all GHG emissions and reported in million metric tons of CO2 equivalent MMT CO2e..
19 See Table 39, Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 19902018, Report 430
R20002, April 13, 2020, https www.epa.gov/
ghgemissions/inventory-us-greenhouse-gasemissions-and-sinks-1990-2018.
20 In 2016, worldwide GHG emissions were estimated to have been 49.4 gigaton Gt CO2e. The GHG emissions of China, India, Russia, and Indonesia are 11,577, 3,235, 2,391, and 2,229 MMT
CO2e respectively. https www.wri.org/blog/2020/
02/greenhouse-gas-emissions-by-country-sector.

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projected increase in global temperatures by 0.049 degrees Celsius C.
Because EGUs represent by far the largest stationary source of GHGs from combustion of fossil fuels, the EPA
believes that this is the most appropriate place for the EPA, states, and sources to devote resources to reducing GHGs from stationary sources. Indeed, this uniquely large magnitude of emissions is the reason over the last 8 years, the Agency has devoted significant effort to determine how to best reduce GHGs from EGUs. Because EGUs are a relatively large U.S. source of emissions in an overall large pool of international EGU sources, regulation over time could help produce practices and technologies that have application to EGUs worldwide.
It is noteworthy that GHG emissions from EGUs are approximately an order of magnitude greater than the estimated emissions of the second largest stationary source category of GHGs attributed to combustion, industrial boilers. Because the magnitude of GHG
emissions from EGUs is large compared to other stationary sources, this makes them clearly significant even without detailed consideration of other factors.
As mentioned earlier, the EPA is also introducing a framework under which a source category that emits above a threshold of 3 percent of U.S. stationary source GHG emissions may contribute significantly to dangerous GHG air pollution. For those source categories above that threshold, the EPA is also determining that consideration of certain secondary criteria may, collectively, also inform the evaluation of whether a source category should be considered to significantly contribute.
However, within this framework, that analysis of secondary criteria is not necessary in the case of EGUs, due to the overwhelmingly large emissions of the source category; it is clear that controlling GHG emissions from the EGU source category will be necessary to appropriately address dangerous air pollution. This conclusion is consistent with the EPAs 2018 Proposal where the Agency explained that if the EPA was required to evaluate significance, EGUs would be considered significant.
1. Secondary Criteria The EPA is determining that the uniquely large GHG emissions from EGUs makes a finding of significant contribution and regulation appropriate by itself. Under the introduced framework, while the EPA does not think it is necessary to consider secondary criteria because of the uniquely large emissions from the EGU

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source category, as explained below, the EPA would make the same determination even if it did consider those criteria.
a. Source Category Trends As mentioned earlier, an important criterion is the evaluation of the trends in emissions and number of designated facilities within a source category, such that the EPA can evaluate whether a source category is on a trajectory of U.S.
GHG emission decline.
While electricity demand is projected to increase the U.S., due to the increased use of less carbon intensive generation technologies and more efficient generation, GHG emissions from the power sector are projected to remain relatively steady for the foreseeable future. However, EGUs are projected to remain the single largest stationary source of GHG emissions, and while the Agency expects few, if any, new coal-fired EGUs will be built to meet the demand for electricity, coalfired EGUs are expected to continue to supply electricity and emit significant GHG emissions for the foreseeable future.21 The EGU source category also includes stationary combustion turbines. The EPA expects new simple cycle and combined cycle combustion turbine EGUs will be built in the future and that the existing fleet of combustion turbines will continue to operate.22
Therefore, efficient generation technology could eventually become standard for all new and existing EGUs.
Consequently, the EPA would consider the source category trends as supporting the regulation of GHG emissions from EGUs.
b. Source Category Emissions With Global Context The EPA is also determining that it can consider, as a secondary criterion, the relative contribution of GHG
emissions from the U.S. in the specific source category compared to worldwide emissions of similar sources.
Accordingly, the EPA evaluates whether a source category is well-regulated internationally and whether the U.S.
emissions from that sector make up a relatively large share of global GHG
emissions, as such evaluation in turn would inform whether U.S. emissions are significantly contributing to 21 According to Table 8 of the Annual Energy Outlook AEO 2020, while coal fired generation will decline between 2019 and 2025 from 959
billion kWh to 709 billion kWh, generation from coal-fired EGUs is projected to subsequently remain relatively steady through 2050.
22 According to Table 8 of the AEO 2020, natural gas fired generation is projected to increase from 1,322 billion kWh to 1,629 billion kWh.

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